Elliott Wave chart analysis for the USD Index for 13th May, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Exactly as expected the dollar continues to move upwards. The target given of 85.12 – 85.17 was exceeded. The next short term target to the upside calculated today is at 86.51.

When upside momentum is over, and MACD shows some divergence so it may be beginning to wane now, then we should see a trend change back to the downside for the dollar.

The invalidation point today is at 82.05. Price should not move below this point.

A long term target for wave 3 black to end lies at 88.1 in the first instance, with 93.07 thereafter.

We may have seen the middle part of this rise yesterday for the dollar which at the time this analysis is done is probably not quite over yet.

Wave 2 orange may have been a rare running flat correction. This is technically possible, and they tend to occur when the forces in the direction of the trend are powerful. The current environment surely does fit this description!

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Elliott Wave chart analysis for the USD Index for 12th May, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

The dollar is taking it’s time completing this last wave up to end wave 3 pink. Volatility has eased for the time being, but that does not mean it’s not going to come back soon!

It seems that the dollar has a little further up to go before this movement is over. Whenever it’s over we should expect a trend change back to the downside. This next wave down cannot move below 82.05 so this is our invalidation point today.

A long term target for the end to wave 3 black to the upside may lie about 88.1 in the first instance and possibly as high as 93.07.

We may see further dollar rises today towards a target at 85.12 to 85.17. Technically wave 5 green can be over here, but it seems most likely that it has a little further to go yet.

Thereafter we may see a trend change back to the downside.

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Elliott Wave chart analysis for the USD Index for 11th May, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

The dollar continues to move upwards to complete wave 3 pink.

A target given for upside movement was 84.53, this target has been exceeded. It is probably not over yet, there seems to be further upside momentum to finish this.

This wave count is invalidated with movement below 80.06.

It seems the wave structure to the upside has further to unfold to be complete. The next calculated target to the upside lies at 82.17.

Wherever wave 5 green ends up the next move for the dollar should be a trend change back to the downside in a corrective fourth wave at pink degree.

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Elliott Wave chart analysis for the USD Index for 10th May, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

As expected the dollar turned down for a fourth wave (wave 4 green). Targets for this fourth wave to end were given as 83.62 to 83.77. Wave 4 moved beyond this target zone to end at 83.02. Thereafter a trend change as expected back to the upside has occurred.

An eventual end to wave 3 black may lie about 88.1 in the first instance where it reaches equality with wave 1 black. Thereafter the next upside target for wave 3 black may lie about 93.07.

The invalidation point for this wave count may be considered to lie at 80.06 today.

The next move for the dollar may be a little more upside movement to end wave 5 green of wave 3 pink. Wave 5 green does not have to reach above the end of wave 3 green at 85.12, wave 5 could be truncated. The most likely end to any further upside momentum may lie about 84.53 which gives equality between waves 1 and 5 green. Thereafter if upside momentum continues we may see the dollar rise to the next likely upside target at 85.17.

A channel can be drawn for recent upside movement. When the channel is breached to the downside we may have indication that wave 5 green of wave 3 pink is over. Also at this stage we should see classic divergence between price trending up and MACD or an Elliott wave oscillator trending down. These two techniques can be used to indicate an end to upside movement.

When this is over we should see a trend change back to the downside for wave 4 pink. A target for this downside corrective movement lies about 83.00.

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Elliott Wave chart analysis for the USD Index for 7th May, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Recent steep upside movement has the look of a third wave. This wave count sees intermediate (black) wave 2 as over with a remarkably brief and shallow correction that still breached the trend channel drawn here containing wave 1 black. Thereafter strong upwards movement has a clear impulsive look and therefore this must be the next impulse wave to the upside. The recent upside movement requires at least one more push up to complete a five wave structure.

We may have seen the steepest part of the dollars rise for this first wave 1 blue of wave 3 black.

The dollar is due for a small correction, thereafter it should continue to rise as the Dow continues to fall. The Dow has a long way down to go and it seems that the dollar will rise alongside it.

Targets for the end to intermediate wave 3 (black) may lie about 88.10 in the first instance, where black 1 and 3 reach equality. Thereafter if the dollar continues it’s rise before a correction of a reasonable size the next target lies about 93.07.

Within wave 3 green ratios are adequate: wave 3 orange is 0.07 more than 1.786 the length of wave 1, and wave 1 and 5 orange are 0.16 different in length.

We may be seeing wave 4 green down. The most probable turning point for the dollar may lie about 83.62 to 83.77.

Thereafter downwards movement should end and the dollar should continue it’s rise towards 86.84 to end wave 3 pink.

Because wave 4 cannot move into wave 1 price territory the invalidation point for this wave count is at 82.68.

This article comes to you from forexinfo.us. We use the Elliott Wave Principle to predict market trends and movement.

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the USD Index for 5th May, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Continued upwards movement was expected after a thorough reanalysis of the wave count for the dollar yesterday. The target given to the upside was 83.77 and the dollar so far has exceeded this target by 0.36.

Wave 3 pink has most likely ended here at 84.13. This is 0.32 short of 1.618 the length of wave 1 pink.

This wave count is invalidated with movement below 80.06.

The next move for the dollar should be downwards in an overlapping three wave movement for a fourth wave of a diagonal. If this is an expanding diagonal then price must drop to 81.98 for diagonal rules to be met.

Upwards momentum may be waning with price trending up and classic divergence on MACD with a downwards trend. If we see further upside movement it should not be much more, towards 84.45 would give wave 3 pink a better fibonacci relationship with wave 1 pink but is not required.

This wave count is invalidated at the hourly level also by movement below 80.06

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Here’s a short video of a technique you can use to time your entry to the market.

This technique requires you set up the following indicators on your charts: – an Elliott wave oscillator or MACD – Bollinger bands of 1% and 2%

Using a 15 minute chart is best.

[flashvideo file=wp-content/uploads/2010/05/entrytiming.flv /]

To summarise, here’s how it works:

1. Identify the main direction of trend, get this from the wave count.

2. Wait for price to lie between the 1% and 2% Bollinger bands on the side opposite to the direction of trend. If you expect price to go up wait for candles to lie between the lower two bands. If you expect price to go down wait for price to lie between the upper two bands.

3. Lastly wait for a bar on MACD or the oscillator that is shorter than the one before it. When you see this you may have a good entry point.

Good luck!

Try it and let us know in comments below how it’s working out for you. If you tweak it let us know how and why.

Thanks to one of our members, Sid Norris, for putting me onto this little method.

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the USD Index for 4th May, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

With yesterday’s strong upwards movement I have reconsidered the wave count for the dollar.

We may not yet have seen the end to intermediate wave 1 (black). Wave 5 blue may be unfolding as an expanding ending diagonal. This interpretation sees the piece of movement now labeled 1 pink as being necessarily a three wave structure, the last wave count interpreted this as a five which was somewhat unsatisfactory.

I have played with trend channels for this movement today and this seems the best channel technique to use here. A trend line from the high of 1 blue to 3 blue and a parallel copy placed on the low of 4 blue sees most movement contained within the channel. As the diagonal finishes however we may see further movement outside as wave 4 pink moves down.

Ratios between wave 1 and 3 blue are: wave 3 is just 0.04 more than 1.236 the length of wave 1.

Targets to the upside for the end to wave 5 blue may lie about 83.77. This would give wave 5 blue equality with wave 1.

This wave count is invalidated with movement below 80.06.

Within wave 3 pink we may have an upside target for wave C green to end about 83.61.

Wave 3 orange may have ended about 83.55 at 1.236 the length of wave 1 orange. We may see a correction for wave 4 orange then another push up to complete a fifth wave of wave C green.

This wave count is invalidated with movement below 80.06 also at the hourly level.

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Elliott Wave chart analysis for the USD Index for 3rd May, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

We are still working on the early phases of wave C blue down which will be the last leg of wave 2 black.

Targets for the downside to end wave 2 black lie in a zone between 79.51 and 79.15.

This wave count is invalidated with movement above 84.59 and below 74.18.

At the end of last weeks trading I expected that wave 2 green was over and we should have seen some strong downwards movement for a third wave. My analysis of wave 2 green was incorrect, leaving it way too brief.

Yesterdays five wave movement upwards is a classic textbook five wave impulse. Wave 2 red is a simple zig zag and wave 4 is a sideways triangle. Wave 3 is the longest wave and only 0.08 less than 1.618 the length of wave 5, and waves 1 and 5 tend to equality missing out by only 0.02.

We may now expect a three wave move to the downside for a B wave which cannot move below 81.63.

Thereafter a short five wave move to the upside for a wave C orange to complete wave 2 green which cannot move above 82.68.

When wave 2 green is over we may expect some strong downwards movement from the dollar in a third wave down towards the target zone.

This wave count is invalidated at the hourly level by movement above 82.68 or below 81.63 today.

This article comes to you from forexinfo.us. We use the Elliott Wave Principle to predict market trends and movement.