USD Index Elliott Wave Analysis – 21st April, 2010

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the USD Index for 21st April, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

The dollar continues to move within a narrow band for the last few days, overall the trend is up exactly as expected for this wave count.

Wave B blue must reach up to 82.01 to satisfy the rule of a 90% retracement for wave B within a flat correction.

This wave count is invalidated at the daily level by movement below 74.18.

We may be seeing a triangle or a flat correction for wave 4 green within wave C pink. This is somewhat confirmed by MACD hovering close to zero.

The next move If wave 4 was over at 80.77 we may have an upside target of 82.01 to 82.15 to end wave B blue.

This wave count is invalidated at the hourly level with movement below 80.72.

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DJIA Elliott Wave Analysis – 19th April, 2010

With the DJIA about to possibly move into a primary third wave down and economic news beginning to look slightly more dire, here’s my two cents worth. I did these wave counts only with the knowledge of the bigger picture, that the DJIA was in a primary wave 2 correction up of a cycle degree C wave down. EWI have been expecting the end to this primary wave 2 for some time now and I wanted to have a look for myself to see if I could add further confusion to the mix

So for what it’s worth, here it is:

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the DJIA for 19th April, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

The first thing that strikes me about this chart is we have still yet to reach the 0.618 fibonacci ratio for primary (maroon) wave 1 at about 11,245. This would seem to be a reasonable expectation of a target to the upside for primary wave 2.

The next thing that strikes me is that wave Z (black) seems a little short. It is 237 points short of 0.618 the length of wave W black, and 353 points short of 0.618 the length of wave Z black. It would seem reasonable for wave Z to have some type of fibonacci relationship with either of it’s counterparts.

The last thing that strikes me is that no matter how you draw a channel for the entire movement of primary wave 2 we do not have a break yet to the downside of the parallel trend channel. It would seem reasonable to wait for this channel to be broken on the downside before calling confirmation of an end to primary wave 2. That would be a very conservative approach.

Within wave W black we have a very nice contracting leading diagonal for wave 1 pink of C blue.

I can find no reasonable Elliott wave ratio between waves A and C blue within wave W black. Within wave C blue here again I can find no reasonable (within less than 100 points) Elliott wave ratios.

Within the first wave X black wave C is 48 points greater than 0.618 the length of wave A blue.

Within wave Y black waves A and C blue do not appear to have a reasonable fibonacci relationship. Wave A is 117 points more than 0.786 the length of wave C.

Wave C blue again begins with a leading diagonal, this one expanding. A nice example of alternation perhaps.

Within wave C blue wave 5 is just 10 points short of 0.618 the length of wave 1. This is the first and best fibonacci relationship I found with this wave count.

Within the second wave X black wave B blue is a perfect 38% correction of wave A blue, and wave C is just 11 points short of 0.618 the length of wave A blue.

Taking a close look at wave Z black this wave count sees upwards movement as not quite over yet.

Within wave C blue it may be reasonable (or not?) to expect wave 5 pink to have some kind of fibonacci relationship with either wave 1 or wave 3 pink. If wave 5 is to equal wave 1 in length we may see the DJIA rise to 11,243. This is very close to the 0.618 fibonacci ratio for primary wave 1.

Therefore one more five wave impulse up to end about 11,243 to 11,245 may be required before primary wave 2 is finally over.

This article comes to you from forexinfo.us. We use the Elliott Wave Principle to predict market trends and movement.

USD Index Elliott Wave Analysis – 19th April, 2010

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the USD Index for 19th April, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

As expected the dollar moved up for a third wave and bounced back down close to the lower trend channel as drawn here for a fourth wave.

A short term target for the upper end to wave C pink of wave B blue lies about 82.01 to 82.28.

Wave B blue does not have to end here, it could continue further past 82.22. If this occurs any scenario including a large running triangle would be eliminated.

This wave count is invalidated at the daily level with movement below 74.18.

The target given for the upper end to wave 3 green within wave C pink was 81.47. Upwards movement has fallen short of this target by 0.22 to end wave 3 at 81.25.

A target for the next piece of movement up for wave 5 green of wave C pink is calculated as a minimum requirement at 82.01 for wave B blue to reach a 90% correction of wave A blue (a rule for flat corrections). If wave 5 green reaches 1.618 the length of wave 3 green (is extended) we may see wave C reach up to 82.28.

When wave B blue is over the dollar should turn back down.

This wave count is invalidated with movement below 80.72.

This article comes to you from forexinfo.us. We use the Elliott Wave Principle to predict market trends and movement.

USD Index Elliott Wave Analysis – 16th April, 2010

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the USD Index for 16th April, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

The dollar continues to behave exactly as expected for this wave count. Upwards movement was predicted and that’s exactly what we have got to start the new trading week.

Upwards targets for wave B blue within this second wave (black) at intermediate degree are 82.01 to 82.31.

This wave count is invalidated with movement below 74.18.

We expected further upwards movement for a third wave (green) within wave C pink and the dollar has indeed moved up. It seems wave 3 green is not over yet. An upwards target for this may lie about 81.47. Thereafter a small fourth wave correction should occur before further upwards movement to complete wave C pink.

At the hourly level this wave count is invalidated with movement below 80.72 at this stage.

This article comes to you from forexinfo.us. We use the Elliott Wave Principle to predict market trends and movement.

USD Index Elliott Wave Analysis – 15th April, 2010

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the USD Index for 15th April, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

As expected from yesterdays analysis the dollar did move further down before reversing trend and moving upwards. Downwards targets were given as 79.62 to 79.54. The dollar fell short of this target zone by 0.44 to end wave A blue at 80.06.

The next move for the dollar overall should be up for wave B blue.

This wave count is invalidated with movement below 74.18.

Wave B blue must reach up to at least 90% of wave A blue at 82.01. Wave B blue can reach above the start of wave A blue at 82.22.

Yesterday’s downwards movement was expected but the overall form of it has a strong three wave look. Counting this piece of movement labeled on the chart above wave B pink (within wave B blue) as a five wave movement for a fifth wave seems too elastic with Elliott wave rules and guidelines. It looks like a B wave so that’s what I’ll count it as.

This has necessitated a reanalysis of previous waves.

Wave A blue has a strong three wave look on both hourly and daily charts. We may be seeing this corrective structure of black wave 2 unfold as a flat correction. This means that the wave B that has begun must reach at least a 90% retracement of wave A blue.

Within wave B we may be seeing an expanded flat correction. These structures allow for very long C waves within them, which is exactly what is required for the whole of wave B blue to reach to the required point of 82.01. This would see wave C pink as about 3.618 the length of wave A pink at 82.31.

The target for the upside therefore for wave C pink to end lies between 82.01 to 82.31.

This wave count is invalidated at the hourly level with movement below 80.1 at this stage.

This article comes to you from forexinfo.us. We use the Elliott Wave Principle to predict market trends and movement.

USD Index Elliott Wave Analysis – 14th April, 2010

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the USD Index for 14th April, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

With continued movement outside the parallel trend channel containing wave 1 black the likelihood that wave 1 is over and wave 2 black is underway is increasing.

This wave count sees the dollar in the early stages of a second wave trending down. Targets for the downside remain about 77.27 to 76.61.

This wave count is invalidated with movement below 74.18.

As expected yesterday the dollar has moved lower. It still has further to go to reach targets at 79.62 to 79.54.

Thereafter the dollar is due for some upwards movement in a three wave structure for wave B blue. Wave B is likely to be a 38 to 79% correction of wave A and should not go above 82.22 (unless we are seeing a running triangle form but that seems unlikely at this stage).

This hourly interpretation is invalidated with movement above 80.46 at this stage.

This article comes to you from forexinfo.us. We use the Elliott Wave Principle to predict market trends and movement.

USD Index Elliott Wave Analysis – 13th April, 2010

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the USD Index for 13th April, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

With continued movement outside the parallel trend channel drawn here (green lines) the likelihood that we have seen a trend change at intermediate degree for the dollar is increasing.

This wave count sees the dollar as in intermediate (black) wave 2 down. Downside targets for wave 2 remain about 77.27 to 76.61.

This wave count is invalidated today with movement below 79.51 or above 82.22.

Wave A blue seems to be unfolding as a five wave impulse movement. If this is correct this rules out a flat correction and therefore the likelihood of wave B blue which is to follow making a new high is eliminated. This also makes a deeper rather than a shallower correction more likely.

Technically all the dollar has to do at this point is to form a five wave movement down to complete wave 5 pink. This downwards movement does not have to reach below the end of wave 3 pink at 80.1.

A likely downside target for the dollar to end wave 5 pink of wave A blue may lie about 79.54 to 79.62.

Thereafter a trend change back to the upside should occur for wave B blue which cannot reach above 82.22.

This article comes to you from forexinfo.us. We use the Elliott Wave Principle to predict market trends and movement.

USD Index Elliott Wave Analysis – 12th April, 2010

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the USD Index for 12th April, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Strong impulsive downwards movement sees the original wave count looking very unlikely. Movement outside the trend channel that contained upwards movement for intermediate (black) wave 1 is now breached to the downside, giving a strong indication today that wave 1 black is over and we are in the early stages of wave 2 black down.

Ratios within wave 1 black are: blue waves 1 and 3 are 0.45 different in length, trying for equality and failing by a reasonable margin. However wave 5 blue is a nice 0.08 more than 0.618 the length of wave 1 blue. These relationships can be considered adequate Elliott wave relationships.

Targets for the downside for wave 2 black at this early stage could be in the first instance a zone about 79.16 to 79.51, thereafter a (more likely) target zone may lie about 77.27 to 76.61. The lower zone is the 0.618 fibonacci ratio for wave 1 black and the end of wave 2 blue.

This wave count is invalidated with movement below 79.51 as wave 2 cannot move beyond the start of wave 1.

Within wave 2 pink ratios are: wave B green was a 57% correction of wave A green, wave C green was just 0.08 short of 1.618 the length of wave A green.

Within wave 3 pink ratios are: wave 3 is just 0.1 more then 2.618 the length of wave 1 green, and wave 5 green is just 0.03 less than 0.0618 the length of wave 1 green. These are excellent Elliott wave ratios for wave 3 pink giving confidence that wave 3 has ended and wave 4 is underway.

Wave 4 pink cannot go beyond 80.68, the end of wave 1 pink. This is therefore the invalidation point for this hourly wave count.

Wave 4 seems to be evolving with a triangle in it’s B wave position. If this triangle continues to be valid we should expect short sharp movement upwards out of the triangle when it is complete. This upwards movement must end before the dollar reaches 80.68.

The next expected movement for the dollar would then be downwards.

This article comes to you from forexinfo.us. We use the Elliott Wave Principle to predict market trends and movement.

USD Index Elliott Wave Analysis – 12th April, 2010

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the USD Index for 12th April, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Strong impulsive downwards movement sees the original wave count looking very unlikely. Movement outside the trend channel that contained upwards movement for intermediate (black) wave 1 is now breached to the downside, giving a strong indication today that wave 1 black is over and we are in the early stages of wave 2 black down.

Ratios within wave 1 black are: blue waves 1 and 3 are 0.45 different in length, trying for equality and failing by a reasonable margin. However wave 5 blue is a nice 0.08 more than 0.618 the length of wave 1 blue. These relationships can be considered adequate Elliott wave relationships.

Targets for the downside for wave 2 black at this early stage could be in the first instance a zone about 79.16 to 79.51, thereafter a (more likely) target zone may lie about 77.27 to 76.61. The lower zone is the 0.618 fibonacci ratio for wave 1 black and the end of wave 2 blue.

This wave count is invalidated with movement below 79.51 as wave 2 cannot move beyond the start of wave 1.

Within wave 2 pink ratios are: wave B green was a 57% correction of wave A green, wave C green was just 0.08 short of 1.618 the length of wave A green.

Within wave 3 pink ratios are: wave 3 is just 0.1 more then 2.618 the length of wave 1 green, and wave 5 green is just 0.03 less than 0.0618 the length of wave 1 green. These are excellent Elliott wave ratios for wave 3 pink giving confidence that wave 3 has ended and wave 4 is underway.

Wave 4 pink cannot go beyond 80.68, the end of wave 1 pink. This is therefore the invalidation point for this hourly wave count.

Wave 4 seems to be evolving with a triangle in it’s B wave position. If this triangle continues to be valid we should expect short sharp movement upwards out of the triangle when it is complete. This upwards movement must end before the dollar reaches 80.68.

The next expected movement for the dollar would then be downwards.

This article comes to you from forexinfo.us. We use the Elliott Wave Principle to predict market trends and movement.

USD Index Elliott Wave Analysis – 9th April, 2010

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the USD Index for 9th April, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

With strong downwards movement to end the trading week the dollar has come to close on the lower edge of the trend channel that has contained it’s movement since November last year. What the dollar does in the first day or so of next weeks trading will determine whether this wave count continues to be valid, or not. Further downwards movement outside the trend channel will make this wave count extremely unlikely.

If this wave count is correct the dollar should bounce sharply upwards in Monday’s session.

This wave count is invalidated with movement below 79.51.

Friday’s downwards movement has a strong impulsive look, which is not exactly what we should expect to see for an A-B-C correction.

Movement below 80.68 will invalidate this hourly wave count. At that stage price would also be below the trend channel on the daily chart and this wave count would be unlikely at the daily level also.

The dollar could move slightly lower to 80.8 where C is equal in length to A. Thereafter according to this wave count it should bounce sharply upwards towards new highs.

I will not post targets in todays analysis. If this wave count holds and looks more likely tomorrow then targets will again be posted.

At this stage the dollar is again at a critical juncture. In these situations where the wave count is unclear or on the verge of being invalidated then it is best to exercise patience and watch and wait for the situation to become clearer before re-entering the market.

This article comes to you from forexinfo.us. We use the Elliott Wave Principle to predict market trends and movement.